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» As previously mentioned in my New Year's eve entry, which represents an attempt to comprehend the incomprehensible, and to portray the problems our economy faces » I am no Economist. But ..
Geeks vs the Government | Game On
.. I'm starting to see articles posted (by/from professionals) that appear to echo points I made about our economy being "heavily-medicated" for a troubling length of time ..
.. such as » THIS ONE, posted at/by Bloomberg, which references an interview conducted with the erudite James Grant .. who uses the term » over-medicated ..
.. while he was discussing the goverment's response to the recession of 1920 that helped shorten its duration.
Probably just a coincidence. New Years eve, you might recall, is when I wrote »
"A little medicine can be a good thing. A great thing, even. But when the medication NEEDS TO CONTINUE .. over an extended period .. that's a bad sign. Because, IF IT CONTINUES .. the road (.. in my experience) always leads to » death."
If you followed my line of reasoning in that entry (.. posted 4½ months ago, and designed to be a fresh look at our economy's problems .. with eyes that have not been academically indoctrinated .. and especially cuz readers claim I have a knack for discussing sophisticated topics in a way that ordinary folk can understand) ..
.. then you know that the heavily-medicated patient was my own concocted analogy for the State-of-our-Economy, based on my own Life Experiences.
It was an intuitive analogy .. one that I wasnt even sure was valid, which is why I included copious hyperlinks .. to identify & support the basis for my concepts. [ Regulars know how I strive for the authenticity that comes only from original thought. ]
Not that I would ever complain about a professional taking up where I left off. Especially not one who wears a bow tie and might become our next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. =)
Speaking of the Federal Reserve .. here's another! A comment from the President of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Richard Fisher, who says (6th paragraph):
"Adding to the accommodative doses we have [already] applied, rather than beginning to wean the patient, might be the equivalent of medical malpractice."
And here's one more .. again, from my good buddy over at the Dallas Fed » Richard Fisher, who says:
"We don't need any more monetary morphine."
I added bold-type for emphasis. If nothing else, this confirms the validity of my analogy .. according to people who would certainly know.
[ As a side note, I find it curious that Richard hails from the Dallas Fed, seeing that Radified receives more donation$ from Texans than from all other 49 states combined. Indeed I have lived in many states over the years, but never Texas. ]
Rad Ego
It's no big deal (NBD) .. but, uh, I have not been able to find any articles that reference the use of an analogy that is anything similar to one that compares our economy to that of an "over-medicated patient" .. posted PRIOR TO the New Year.
The first was that Bloomberg article, quoting James Grant, dated February 14, 2012 (Valentines day). The articles quoting Richard Fisher are dated March 5, and March 22, both 2012.
So if you happen to find one dated earlier than December 30, 2011, or even February 14, 2012 .. please kindly forward me a link. Gracias. Cuz my ego is convinced » "Dude! They are reading your shit!" =)
No mere mortal can guarantee that they're always accurate, but I *do* try to think for myself and retain an element of healthy skepticism when it comes to widely-held beliefs ..
.. which is something we ALL need to do a little more often .. cuz the current thinking obviously isnt working very well .. especially not for our kids .. as many seem to agree.
The Oracle & the Iceberg
But, wait! There's more! Cuz New Years eve is when I also said:
"So .. when I look out over the valley that is 2012, what do I see? You should hope I have no prophetic gift .. because I see it getting ugly, or I see it getting worse .. just below the layer of FOG sitting there."
And right about the same time as those other comments came one [ on February 29th, 2012 ] from Bernanke himself ..
.. who happens to be the closest thing we have to an Economic oracle (.. or authoritative prophet).
.. who warned Congress about a "massive fiscal cliff" coming on January 1st, 2013 (.. now 8 months away). And you know what they say about 13 being an unlucky number.
I said VALLEY. Ben said CLIFF. Coincidence? (You can easily see the date on the Bernanke article.)
Either way, you must admit » Ben does look a little scared, and his choice of words there is surprising .. uncharacteristically alarmist for one of our economy's biggest cheerleaders.
Like me, Ben is also using geographical terrain as a METAPHOR for the future of our nation's economy .. tho my view includes the social ramifications. While many Economists ignore them, the two cant be separated.
Now I will concede that a VALLEY may or may not be bordered by to a CLIFF (.. perhaps a gentle slope). But clearly, Ben is talking about a particular type of cliff .. one that proceeds from high ground to low .. just like the view of my valley (.. that I "look out over" and not up from below).
And everybody standing on the Fiscal Deck of the USS Economy in the thick forecasting fog that frigid night said, "Cliff? Yikes! Iceberg! Dead ahead! Sound the alarm! Admiral Ben said it's massive!"
[ Cant you almost hear the music playing in the background? .. where the rich survived and the poor died .. in the freezing-cold waters of the north Atlantic on the night of April 15, 1912, almost exactly 100 years ago .. cuz there were not enough lifeboat$ to save everybody .. as the unsinkable sank. ]
We have already seen what our leaders are capable of (.. or should I say incapable of) .. during the last raising of the debt-ceiling.
And guess when the next round of debt-ceiling dialogue will be? It could NOT come at a worse time.
I do not know what would become of global financial markets, but I suspect the mere spectre of a United States default would be most unsettling.
[ It has become clear .. that Wall Street's financial wizards are much smarter, craftier & dedicated than Washington's regulators, who, time & again, have proven themselves either INEPT or willingly ignorant .. just like the government they represent. ]
Seems hard to believe .. but even after we drop off Ben's "massive fiscal cliff", the nation would STILL be running deficits.
Perhaps even more concerning is a new report from S&P .. that warns of a "Perfect Storm" currently brewing in our Credit Markets .. with winds that may reach speeds of 46 Trillion miles per hour by the time it makes landfall. Hold on to your financial hats. [ Podcast » here. ] The Bell calls this warning a ploy.
Reality Check
I realize that Ben's comment is more of a stretch than the ones made by James Grant & Richard Fisher, but there have been other such examples I could cite ..
.. where it sounds like prominent economic people have begun touting concepts that sound remarkably similar to the ones I put forth in that New Year's eve entry. But, like I said » it's NBD.
If you happened to read my holiday entry, you know it contains MANY such unique concepts and ideas .. cuz I never heard of them myself .. until they started popping into my head.
I mean, it wasnt like I was trying to think about this stuff in great detail (.. depressing shit that it is). It seemed to come to me ON ITS OWN .. as tho my innocent holiday quest for some semblance of Economic understanding somehow morphed (.. on its own) into a search for solutions.
Maybe it's a geek thing. Me » "Wow!"
[ Think I'll buy a few extra bags of rice & beans come December. On second thought, this might be a good year to plant / grow a garden. ]
And even my ego feels uncomfortable sharing the #1 coolest, uncannily similar comment I've noticed coming from prominent economic people (.. two of them). I mean the evidence is there. Strikingly so.
But .. perhaps just another coincidence. Later in today's entry, I will include a link to a clue. Here's a hint for now » Magic Mountain.
Society, Values & Ethics
Does not the essence of the US$64T question seem to be? » "Is keeping the economy artificially inflated today ..
.. 6 months before a presidential election and nearly 4 years after the financial crisis of 2008 ..
.. MORE IMPORTANT THAN our children's future?"
Because we do this at our children's expen$e. At what point does enough become enough? Anybody sat down and determined that number?
At what point does economic "stimulus" (.. for which our children receive the tab) become immoral? Does it EVER become immoral? Keep running Trillion dollar deficits 'til kingdom come?
Perhaps an easier question » when is it NOT immoral?
That, my friend, is a VALUES question, which involves many factors. But, at least ONE aspect should be considerations that include » ethics (.. seeing children cant vote).
Because, if you remove ethics from decisions that affect both society and future generations .. and simply SELL THEM [ .. the decisions that affect society and future generations ] to the highest bidder ..
.. as Capitalists have been known to do .. obviously, the highest bidder will prosper, and thus prospering, be therefore able to afford / purchase even more decisions.
The result » a self-perpetuating, self-reinforcing, ever-strengthening recursive cycle that benefits both the BUYER & the SELLER.
Sound familiar? It should .. cuz it describes the relationship between Washington & Wall Street. It's called "The Revolving Door" relationship.
Today's entry most definitely continues in Ye Olde Rad Blog v4 .. see here » Geeks vs the Government | Game On
It's very easy for kids, given the sports they play and academics in school, to compare themselves with others. I still remember gramps telling me: